// retail leverage monitor
Retail Leverage
Margin financing, sidelined cash and forced liquidations across the US, Korea and China stock markets, from official daily and monthly statistics.
Leverage Index60.1Elevated
0-100 · higher = less healthyComposite of trailing 10-year percentiles: margin/float-cap level (30%), 6-month margin growth (25%), margin growth minus index return over 1 year (25%), 20-day margin net-buying heat (20%). Backtested 2010-2026: readings above 75 preceded an average -12% index return over the following 12 months.
Margin Balance
$392.75B
-0.06% vs prev day
Margin / Float Cap
2.65%
10y percentile 98%
Float Market Cap
$14.8T
+0.48% vs prev day
Margin Net Buying
-$243M
2026-08-20
Margin balance vs leverage ratio
Daily margin net buying
Backtest: known tops and bottoms
The live formula, recomputed over full history (2011-2026, data through 2026-07), checked against major market tops, bottoms and the full sample. Readings are informative at the extremes; this is a fragility gauge, not a timing signal.
Rank corr vs fwd 12m return
-0.190
Avg fwd 12m when reading < 25
+9.8%
Avg fwd 12m when reading > 75
-12.2%
| Market top | Max decline after | Type | Reading at top | Peak prior 6m | First 75+ warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-06 | -46% | Leverage-driven | 86.1 | 87.8 | ~6mo before |
| 2018-01 | -32% | Non-leverage | 48.8 | 50.2 | -- |
| 2021-02 | -15% | Non-leverage | 39.1 | 69.6 | -- |
Readings at major bottoms: 2016-01 → 27.5 · 2018-12 → 30.3 · 2024-09 → 34.4
- The signal runs early: first 75+ warnings led tops by 2-18 months, and markets often kept rising in between.
- Roughly one in four high-reading episodes was not followed by a major drawdown.
- By design it stays silent on non-leverage declines and exogenous shocks; liquidation stress is tracked separately.
- Small sample: only a handful of full cycles per market, and weights were chosen coarsely to limit overfitting.
Source: SSE / SZSE / BSE margin trading statistics · dailyConverted to USD at USD/CNY = 6.72 (ECB reference rate)Data as of 2026-08-20Public market statistics. Not investment advice.